2017 NFL Over/Under Win Totals by Team

Adam Arms previews the 2017 NFL season, and provides recommendations for bettors looking to put action on the 2017 NFL Over/Under win totals of all 32 NFL teams.

It’s that time of year boys and girls. For your gambling pleasure, I’ve foretold the future of all 32 teams. Am I lucky or am I just that good? Both. Each team’s breakdown is followed by my recommendation to take the over or the under.

If you like to bet the 2017 NFL over/under on NFL games, or just want some different analysis than the other guys provide, you’ve come to the right place.

Let’s do it. Here are my top 5 plays:

Adam Arms’s

2017 NFL Win/Loss Analysis

Top 5 Plays

Rank Team 2016 Record Over/Under Adam’s Bet
1 Denver Broncos 9-7 8.5  Take the under.
2  Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13 6.0 Take the over.
3 Chicago Bears 3-13  5.5 Take the under.  
4  Miami Dolphins 10-6 7.5  Take the over.
5  Baltimore Ravens 8-8 9.0 Take the under.


Denver Broncos: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.5

#1) Denver Broncos: Over/Under 8.5

2016 Record: 9-7

Denver is talented, no question. Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, CJ Anderson, Von Miller and…Trevor Siemian. Sounds an awful lot like Deandre Hopkins, Lamar Miller, J.J. Watt…and Brock Osweiler.

2017 Broncos = 2016 Texans. Houston won nine games in the regular season last year – the final eight were by a TD or less, and the last four came by a total of 11 points. Denver will keep it close all season – but Houston had the luxury of a beaten down AFC South. Denver has the Black Hole and Arrowhead.

Adam suggests: Take the UNDER.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 2017 NFL Over/Under 6.0

#2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Over/Under 6.0

2016 Record: 3-13

The Jags selected Leonard Fournette with the 4th overall pick in 2017. Good news for the Jags, bad news for Fournette. Getting run over by a bulldozer would be less painful than being the every-down RB for the Jags.

But make no mistake about it – Fournette is barely human. Just as Adrian Peterson did as a rookie in Minnesota, Fournette will single-handedly win a few games for the Jags. Let the big dog eat.

Adam recommends: Take the OVER.

Chicago Bears: 2017 NFL Over/Under 5.5

#3) Chicago Bears: Over/Under 5.5

2016 Record: 3-13

Here’s 11 games I can’t see Chicago winning – two against the Packers, at home against Seattle, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay – on the road at Atlanta, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Detroit, Minnesota. Toss in probable losses vs. Baltimore and New Orleans. Another 3-13 season doesn’t seem out of the question.

Adam suggests: Take the UNDERMiami Dolphins: 2017 NFL Over/Under 7.5

#4) Miami Dolphins: Over/Under 7.5

2016 Record: 10-6

Congratulations Dolphins fans, you finally don’t suck that much. Miami added All-pro TE Julius Thomas to play alongside freak-show WR Jarvis Landry and stud RB Jay Ajayi. Offense wasn’t the problem in 2016 – it was the defense. Miami addressed the defensive concerns loudly and clearly in the offseason by selecting defensive players with five of its six draft picks.

The Dolphins have had a sneaky good offseason. This one’s a gimme.

Take the OVER.Baltimore Ravens: 2017 NFL Over/Under 9.0

#5) Baltimore Ravens: Over/Under 9.0

2016 Record: 8-8

After Ray Rice dealt a knockout blow to both his wife and NFL career, the Ravens’ offense has lacked firepower. The offseason hasn’t been kind to the Ravens – Steve Smith retired and they lost three O-linemen. But, they say you make your own luck…and after the Ravens looked at these gaping offensive holes and elected to use their first four draft picks on defensive players…well, good luck.

Adam instructs: Take the UNDER.

Arizona Cardinals: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.0

#6) Arizona Cardinals: Over/Under 8.0

2016 Record: 7-8-1

Arizona has enough talent and depth to win half of their games…so you can’t help but ask yourself, why only seven wins last season? The Cards have weapons galore on both sides of the ball. This one comes down to how much Carson Palmer has left in the tank. I’m betting he’s got enough left to get the job done.

Adam urges: Take the OVER. 

Atlanta Falcons: 2017 NFL Over/Under 9.5

#7) Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under 9.5

2016 Record: 11-5

Before you automatically bet the “over,” I’d recommend taking a glance at Atlanta’s schedule. Division contests with the Buccaneers and Panthers will be virtual toss-ups. Non-division matchups vs. Green Bay, Dallas, @New England and @Seattle gives me the feeling a 9-7 record is more likely than 10-6.

Adam concludes: Take the UNDER. Buffalo Bills: 2017 NFL Over/Under 6.0

#8) Buffalo Bills: Over/Under 6.0

2016 Record: 7-9

Shady McCoy and Sammy Watkins are reason enough for the Bills to win more than six games. Rex Ryan is reason enough for the Bills to win less than six games.

A 7-9 record is entirely feasible.

Adam recommends: Take the OVER. 

Carolina Panthers: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.5

#9) Carolina Panthers: Over/Under 8.5

2016 Record: 6-10

Cam Newton is healthy and has a new Reggie Bush-type weapon in Christian McCaffery. Highly doubt they lose 50% of the time. Easy 2017 NFL Over/Under prediction.

Adam encourages you to: Take the OVER.

Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.5#10) Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under 8.5

2016 Record: 6-9-1

Bengals will be good this year (on the field, not off the field). They added Joe Mixon, who, aside from being a public relations nightmare, was #2 in the nation in All Purpose Yard Per Game last year. He’s a gamechanger.

Adam’s thoughts: Take the OVERCleveland Browns: 2017 NFL Over/Under 4.5

#11) Cleveland Browns: Over/Under 4.5

2016 Record: 1-15

The Browns won 1 game in 2016. No way I’m betting they’ll win five-times that amount in 2017.

Adam’s Advice: Take the UNDER. 

Dallas Cowboys: 2017 NFL Over/Under 9.5

#12) Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under 9.5

2016 Record: 13-3

Something smells fishy about this line, and I damn sure don’t like the smell of fish. Dallas did lose Doug Free, the Left Tackle and anchor of the league’s best O-Line…but they won 13 games last year. I’m not prepared to take a leap from 13-3 to 9-7.

Adam says: Take the OVER.Detroit Lions: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.0

#13) Detroit Lions: Over/Under 8.0

2016 Record: 9-7

Notice how the Lions lost Calvin Johnson before the 2016 season, didn’t make any real attempt to replace him…and somehow didn’t even miss him? Never underestimate the value of having an elite QB. Stafford can slang and bang with the best of ‘em. Extra incentive for Stafford – he’s in a contract year. Big stats + Wins = Big $$

Adam’s prescription: Take the OVER.Green Bay Packers: 2017 NFL Over/Under 10.0

#14) Green Bay Packers: Over/Under 10.0

2016 Record: 10-6

Aaron Rodgers.

That pretty much sums it up, but feel free to keep reading. His primary targets have suffered serious injuries the last two seasons and the running game has been atrocious. That should matter. But… nah. Packers have won 11 and 12 games the last two seasons, seems unlikely they plummet to 9 wins in 2017.

Adam directs you to: Take the OVER.

Houston Texans: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.5

#15) Houston Texans: Over/Under 8.5

2016 Record: 9-7

Can’t say I’ve seen a ton of footage on Tom Savage, but I’ve seen plenty on Deshaun Watson. He can ball. Either way, Houston was a solid playoff team with Brock Osweiler at QB. You wanna argue they’re gonna be worse this year? No way.

Adam recommends: Take the OVER.

Indianapolis Colts: 2017 NFL Over/Under 9.0

#16) Indianapolis Colts: Over/Under 9.0

2016 Record: 8-8

Golden rule of today’s NFL – the team with the better QB will win on most occasions. You could make an argument the Colts will have the better QB in all 16 games. Are you prepared to take the “under” on this, signaling your confidence that the team with the better QB will lose half the games? Nope.

Adam Arms, Esq. Counsels: Take the OVER.
Kansas City Chiefs: 2017 NFL Over/Under 9.0

#17) Kansas City Chiefs: Over/Under 9.0

2016 Record: 12-4

I like Andy Reid. He’s like that gross uncle we all have that fully embraces his image as the insanely disgusting uncle. And he’s a badass coach. They won’t get 12 wins like they did in 2016, but the combination of Andy Reid and always-raucous Arrowhead Stadium will keep them above .500.

Adam urges bettors: Take the OVER.

Los Angeles Chargers: 2017 NFL Over/Under 7.5

#18) Los Angeles Chargers: Over/Under 7.5

2016 Record: 5-11

The Chargers were a 5-11 dumpster fire in 2016. Trash. And don’t blame injuries. If your perennial all-pro veteran QB is healthy the entire season, you gotta win more than five games. They’re bringing back virtually the same core that led them to a last place finish in the AFC West last year. Expect the same results.

Arms advises: Take the UNDER.

Los Angeles Rams: 2017 NFL Over/Under 5.5

#19) Los Angeles Rams: Over/Under 5.5

2016 Record: 4-12

I count 10 games as definite losses: two against the Cardinals and two against the Seahawks, at home against the Colts, Redskins, and Houston; on the road at Dallas, Giants, and Titans. That leaves six games: two against the 49ers, home games against the Saints and Eagles, and on the road vs. the Vikings and Jags. I can’t find six wins for the Rams in my 2017 NFL Over/Under totaling.

Adam suggests: Take the UNDER.

Minnesota Vikings: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.5

#20) Minnesota Vikings: Over/Under 8.5

2016 Record: 8-8

Try this schedule on for size: road games against Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Carolina, and Washington. Home games against Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans. Home and away games vs. the Packers, and home/away vs. Detroit. Doesn’t take long to come up with eight losses. And in the extremely likely event that Sam Bradford ruptures his groin on the first snap of the preseason, Minnesota could easily find ten losses.

Adam’s advice: Take the UNDER.

New England Patriots: 2017 NFL Over/Under 12.5#21) New England Patriots: Over/Under 12.5

2016 Record: 14-2

This one’s tricky. The number may seem high, but it really shouldn’t. The Pats have won 12 or more games every season since 2010. Patriots play @Denver, @Oakland, @Pittsburgh, and have the Chiefs, Texans, Panthers, and Falcons at home. The division is awful, horrendous smelling garbage. But…the last game of the regular season is against the Jets. Pats will be locked into home-field throughout the playoffs and likely resting their starters. Could turn a sure-fire 6-0 division record into 5-1. They’ll lose four games.

Adam favors: Take the UNDER.

New Orleans Saints: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.0

#22) New Orleans Saints: Over/Under 8.0

2016 Record: 7-9

Saints have finished 7-9 the last three seasons. Maybe they finish 8-8, but that feels like best case scenario.

Adam urges: Take the UNDER.

New York Giants: 2017 NFL Over/Under 9.0

#23) New York Giants: Over/Under 9.0

2016 Record: 11-5

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants go 10-6, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they go 6-10. Inconsistency at its finest. Which team is going to show up to play – the team that handed Dallas two of its three losses, or the team that failed to score 20 points in six consecutive games to close out last season? Even if they manage to go 9-7, you’ll still get the push. Under is the play here.

Adam suggests: Take the UNDER.

New York Jets: 2017 NFL Over/Under 5.0

#24) New York Jets: Over/Under 5.0

2016 Record: 5-11

The jets are really awful. I’m not sure I’d take the “over” even if they played Cleveland six times.

Adam recommends: Take the UNDER.

Oakland Raiders: 2017 NFL Over/Under 10.0

#25) Oakland Raiders: Over/Under 10.0

2016 Record: 12-4

The Raiders may cruise into the Week 10 Bye with five or six wins, but nothing says, “Welcome back bitches,” quite like having to play the Patriots, Broncos, Giants, at Kansas City and back home against the Cowboys.

Take the UNDER.

Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.0

#26) Philadelphia Eagles: Over/Under 8.0

2016 Record: 7-9

The Eagles went 1-5 in division matchups last year. Let’s say they go 3-3 this year. They have winnable non-division matchups at home against the 49ers, Bears, and Broncos, and on the road @Rams and @Chargers. That’s eight wins, and feels like a stretch. Their remaining games are: home vs. Arizona and Oakland – on the road @KC, @Panthers, @Seattle. Getting eight wins is going to be tough – getting nine seems like a longshot.

Adam concludes: Take the UNDER.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 2017 NFL Over/Under 10.5

#27) Pittsburgh Steelers: Over/Under 10.5

2016 Record: 11-5

Way under. Giving them 10.5 wins would be a stretch even with a 100% guarantee that Big Ben would be healthy. The first half of the schedule is manageable. Second half, not so much. Pittsburgh’s Bye comes in Week 8, followed by: @Colts, Titans, Green Bay, @Cincinnati, Baltimore, New England, @Houston. If you’re taking the over, you better pray Big Ben is healthy during the back-half.

Adam says: Take the UNDER.

San Francisco 49ers: 2017 NFL Over/Under 4.5

#28) San Francisco 49ers: Over/Under 4.5

2016 Record: 2-14

After going 2-14, the 49ers got rid of Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert… and replaced them with Brian Hoyer, and Matt Barkley. It’s like finally getting rid of that nagging herpes, only to find out days later you’ve got full-blown AIDS. You can’t convince me there are five winnable games on that schedule.

Take the UNDER.

Seattle Seahawks: 2017 NFL Over/Under 10.5

#29) Seattle Seahawks: Over/Under 10.5

2016 Record: 10-5-1

Seattle won 10 games last year, including wins over each of the Super Bowl teams. If you ask me, the 2017 schedule is easier than 2016. And the fantasy football gods have been toying with us for long enough – gotta assume Pete Carroll finds a way to get Jimmy Graham more involved in 2017. I don’t see them taking a step back.

Adam advises: Take the OVER.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.5

#30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over/Under 8.5

2016 Record: 9-7

Jameis Winston is entering his third season and has never missed a game. He’s a legitimate threat at QB. And at 23-years old…he’s more likely to recover from minor injuries and be 100% healthy come game time. Can’t say the same for division rival QB’s Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.

Adam recommends: Take the OVER.

Tennessee Titans: 2017 NFL Over/Under 8.5

#31) Tennessee Titans: Over/Under 8.5

2016 Record: 9-7

The Titans have the ultimate all-or-nothing schedule. Some tough matchups: Raiders, Seahawks, @Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, and Colts twice; but also some cake walks: @Browns, Rams, @49ers, and twice against the Jags. I’m betting they’ll win the games they’re supposed to win, and Marcus Mariota steals a couple of close ones.

Adam encourages: Take the OVER.

Washington Redskins: 2017 NFL Over/Under 7.5

#32) Washington Redskins: Over/Under 7.5

2016 Record: 8-7-1

The Redskins have a path to eight wins, but they’re gonna need one, maybe two upsets to get there. Safe to say they can go 3-3 in division. Should win @Rams, home against 49ers, @Chargers…that’s six. Pick off a couple of wins at home against the Vikings or Broncos, or @New Orleans. I see a path to eight.

Adam says: Take the OVER.

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